Conflicting Reports on Tiger's Return

When - and where - will Tiger Woods make his return to tournament golf? There are conflicting reports out from the Associated Press and USA Today on that question.

The AP's Doug Ferguson writes today:

As part of his rehab from reconstructive knee surgery, Tiger Woods began taking full swings with short clubs in December; assuming there is no swelling or other complications when he resumes a full practice routine, he likely will make his 2009 debut at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship in Marana during the last week in February.

So Woods will return at the Match Play in February. But wait, just yesterday USA Today had this to say:

In the short term, Woods intends to go for a fifth green jacket in April. His hope is to play at least one event before that, possibly in March at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, where he is defending champ, or the World Golf Championships-CA Championship near Miami.

Which is it? The World Match Play in February, or a March return at Bay Hill or the CA Championship? Tiger hasn't indicated anything about specific return dates or locations; both articles appear speculative.

To me, a March return makes more sense than the Match Play in February. For starters, the World Match Play is a difficult event (if you advance, that is): multiple 36-hole days; more golf overall than in any stroke-play tournament; and on a hilly course, too. The World Match Play is near and dear to Tiger's heart, but those conditions are less than ideal for someone returning from knee surgery.

Then there's this: Woods' wife, Elin, is due to give birth to the couple's second child in February. I doubt Tiger will be going anywhere for several weeks after Elin gives birth. And that also argues for a March return.

So let's take a stab at prognostication and predict that Woods will return at the WGC CA Championship on March 12, and then play the Arnold Palmer Invitational beginning March 26. On that schedule, he gets in two tournaments prior to The Masters, and has a week off between each of the three events.