When the first Rolex Women's World Golf Rankings were released two weeks ago, all the talk centered around the fact that Michelle Wie - who has never won a professional golf tournament - was No. 3 in the world.
After she finished third at the LPGA Fields Open last week, Wie moved up to No. 2. I firmly believe that Wie is the second most-talented female golfer in the world - not potentially, but right now. However, if I compiled my own subjective world rankings, I could not bring myself to place a player looking for her first win at No. 3 or No. 2.
Sports fans are never happy with rankings of any sort (unless their team or favorite player is No. 1). But the Rolex Rankings aren't the only women's golf rankings out there - just the first "official" world golf rankings. The Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index, based on a formula developed by math geek and sports ranking whiz Jeff Sagarin, has been churning out women's world rankings for about five years.
Michelle Wie does not appear in the Sagarin rankings because she is two events short of meeting the minimum appearances requirement. However, if that requirement was lowered to allow Wie into the rankings, she would be No. 2 in the world. And she would have been No. 2 even before the Fields.
So no matter what we might subjectively think about a non-winner coming in at No. 2, two different world rankings, using two different models, call Wie the second-best female golfer in the world.
What's up with that?
Here's a clue: While Wie has not yet won, she does, more often than not, beat the other top women in the world of golf. The Sagarin rankings, in fact, build in to its system "won-loss" records for every golfer versus every other golfer. For example, if Meena Lee and Christina Kim play the same event 16 times, and Kim finishes ahead of Lee in nine of those tournament's, then Kim's record against Lee is 9-7, and Lee's won-less record against Kim is 7-9.
In the eight tournaments of 2005 in which Wie and Paula Creamer both competed, Wie was 5-3.
In its most recent issue, Golfweek takes a look at Wie's won-loss record against other top players dating to the start of the 2003 season. Here's what they came up with:
• Annika Sorenstam: Sorenstam leads Wie 13-3-1, the only player Golfweek looked at who has a winning record against Wie. However, Wie leads 2-1-1 over their past four common events.
• Paula Creamer: Wie leads 9-3-1
• Christie Kerr: Wie leads 11-10-1
• Juli Inkster: Wie leads 11-7
• Natalie Gulbis: Wie leads 13-8
• Morgan Pressel: Wie leads 3-1
• Yuri Fudoh: Wie leads 4-1
• Grace Park: Tied 10-10-1 (but since 2004, Wie leads 9-6-1)
• Jeong Jang: Wie leads 13-10 (since 2004, Wie's lead is 11-5)
I still wouldn't rank Wie No. 2 right now on my subjective list (although as soon as that first win comes, you can bet I will). But Golfweek's research does make it more understandable that two different statistical models place Wie at No. 2.
Correction: In my original post I incorrectly referred to Mr. Sagarin as "Danny." His name is actually Jeff, which is now reflected in the post above. My apologies to Jeff and to our readers for the mistake.
After she finished third at the LPGA Fields Open last week, Wie moved up to No. 2. I firmly believe that Wie is the second most-talented female golfer in the world - not potentially, but right now. However, if I compiled my own subjective world rankings, I could not bring myself to place a player looking for her first win at No. 3 or No. 2.
Sports fans are never happy with rankings of any sort (unless their team or favorite player is No. 1). But the Rolex Rankings aren't the only women's golf rankings out there - just the first "official" world golf rankings. The Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index, based on a formula developed by math geek and sports ranking whiz Jeff Sagarin, has been churning out women's world rankings for about five years.
Michelle Wie does not appear in the Sagarin rankings because she is two events short of meeting the minimum appearances requirement. However, if that requirement was lowered to allow Wie into the rankings, she would be No. 2 in the world. And she would have been No. 2 even before the Fields.
So no matter what we might subjectively think about a non-winner coming in at No. 2, two different world rankings, using two different models, call Wie the second-best female golfer in the world.
What's up with that?
Here's a clue: While Wie has not yet won, she does, more often than not, beat the other top women in the world of golf. The Sagarin rankings, in fact, build in to its system "won-loss" records for every golfer versus every other golfer. For example, if Meena Lee and Christina Kim play the same event 16 times, and Kim finishes ahead of Lee in nine of those tournament's, then Kim's record against Lee is 9-7, and Lee's won-less record against Kim is 7-9.
In the eight tournaments of 2005 in which Wie and Paula Creamer both competed, Wie was 5-3.
In its most recent issue, Golfweek takes a look at Wie's won-loss record against other top players dating to the start of the 2003 season. Here's what they came up with:
• Annika Sorenstam: Sorenstam leads Wie 13-3-1, the only player Golfweek looked at who has a winning record against Wie. However, Wie leads 2-1-1 over their past four common events.
• Paula Creamer: Wie leads 9-3-1
• Christie Kerr: Wie leads 11-10-1
• Juli Inkster: Wie leads 11-7
• Natalie Gulbis: Wie leads 13-8
• Morgan Pressel: Wie leads 3-1
• Yuri Fudoh: Wie leads 4-1
• Grace Park: Tied 10-10-1 (but since 2004, Wie leads 9-6-1)
• Jeong Jang: Wie leads 13-10 (since 2004, Wie's lead is 11-5)
I still wouldn't rank Wie No. 2 right now on my subjective list (although as soon as that first win comes, you can bet I will). But Golfweek's research does make it more understandable that two different statistical models place Wie at No. 2.
Correction: In my original post I incorrectly referred to Mr. Sagarin as "Danny." His name is actually Jeff, which is now reflected in the post above. My apologies to Jeff and to our readers for the mistake.
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